I have a totally unsubstantiated theory.
Okay, maybe it's not a true "theory".
It's more like a series of questions that are leading me to a certain conclusion. Re-phrasing it that way may keep me out of trouble in the long run. Don't get me wrong, I could be (could be? Don't you mean most likely are.) off base—but hear me out.

A few weeks ago, after my talk at the University Club, I was given a book—
American Breweries II, by Dale Van Wieren (thanks to John Ewashko, for that, by the way). How this tome slipped by me, I'll never know, but it is something special. My guess is that a good number of you know why. It lists nearly every brewery in the United States, from… well… from forever, up until the mid-1990s. It's chock full of breweries listed by State, City, address, and operating dates. Thousands and thousands of breweries, all categorized into "families" by location, regardless of owner or operator, from the 17th century to the late 20th century.
Ron Pattinson may be heard uttering the phrase "Data, glorious data" as you read this.
So what was I going to do with all this lovely data? What everyone should do—make a graph. But, what to graph? How about one showing the number of breweries operating in Albany in any given ten year period from 1800 to 1920? Let's throw Albany's little brother, Troy in the mix, too. Now, how about if we compare that data with other areas in New York Sate over the same period?
Before I go any further, I need to step back and set some guidelines.
For this exercise, I'm going to pretend that anything south of the Harlem River belongs to New Jersey. The hot mess that is the history of New York City, is too big a bite for me to take right now. The "City" is—and was—its own entity that operates with little regard for the rest on the state, so I at this point, I'm leaving it alone.
So if not NYC, then who? I've decided to look at the areas in New York that had populations of 100,000 or more, by 1920. Those areas are Albany/Troy, Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo—sorry Utica. I've included Troy with Albany, not only because of their close ties with each others brewing history, but also because of their proximity to one another. Speaking of location, I've also include some of the "outskirts" for some of these areas; like Cohoes and Lansingburgh in the Albany/Troy area, and Amherst and Tonawanda near Buffalo. My caveat, however, is that those outskirts must be within ten miles of the larger, target area—sorry Schenectady.
So, with all the criteria set, what have we come up with?
Well look at that.
Here's what I see: Stability versus instability. Albany and Troy seem to have had a fairly stable brewing industry, throughout the 120 year span. Neither city shows a significant spike—that being rapid growth, followed by a somewhat significant decline in their breweries. Albany had a rise early in the century and both cities rose significantly during the 1860s, but there no big ups-and-downs. Syracuse, likewise, was stable, but later in the century. That can't be said for the two western most cities. Both, especially Rochester, have a rapid rise followed by a drop.
Looking at the cities individually, we see that the height of brewing for all the cities falls between 1860 and 1880. Albany peaks first in the 1860s, followed by Troy, Rochester and Buffalo in the 1870s, and lastly, Syracuse in the 1880s. What's interesting is that all of the areas—with the exception of Syracuse—experience some level of decline between 1880 and 90. A decline that continues for everyone until national prohibition in 1920. Albany lost 11 breweries, and Troy lost four—from their heights in the 1860s and 70s, to their biggest decline in the 1890s. Buffalo lost 15 breweries from its height in the 1870s to its deepest decline in the 1890s. Rochester won at losing, with 17 breweries lost from its peak in the 1870s to its sharpest decline—a mere ten years later—in the 1880s. Each area, would continue to lose, on average, seven to eight breweries, until the start of prohibition. It's also worth noting that this isn't an ale versus lager phenomenon. The graph charts breweries in operation—not what those breweries made.
Now, you may be saying to yourself at this point, that the obvious reason for the rapid rises in brewery numbers in Rochester and Buffalo is rapid population increases—and you'd be right. Partly. Albany and Troy never had a significant population boom during the19th century. Their populations increased steadily over the 120 year period, and their breweries were established early-on, growing into rather large facilities—perhaps capable of meeting demand with fewer numbers. Their decline begins as competition increases. Syracuse, on the other hand, did experience a population boom. One that was slightly later, in the 1890s, than its more western counterparts. Its arc indicates what one might expect, slow, but steady brewery growth, and rise, plateau and a mild decline. Rochester and Buffalo see their booms mid-century, and yes, like Syracuse, both cities see a rise in the number of breweries that coincides with their population increases. However, the booms explain the rises, not the falls. If both cities had consistent population increases, shouldn't they have had arcs more in line with Syracuse?
You might also be inclined to think that amalgamation and consolidation may be at play. And yes, there definitely larger breweries buying smaller breweries, but, the data source does take that into consideration. As was mention previously, the listings are set into "families" by location. So if a brewery was sold and renamed, but continued to operate at the same location, it's accounted for.
Granted, expansion of what would become the very large the midwestern breweries, at around the same time played into the decline of New York breweries, and interestingly, an email from
Jess Kidden—about hops—brings up another correlation. According to a number of sources, New York hops production peaks in 1880, with the state supplying about 80% of the nations hop crop. By the 1890s, that percentage had dropped to around 50%.
So what was going on, down the Erie Canal?
Remember those "questions" I mentioned at the beginning? Here they are.
Could there have been an unsustainable 19th century beer bubble—especially in western New York— during the 1870s, that popped in the 1890s? Was it simply demand and population increase that brought about the numbers of breweries opening in western New York—or could there have been some beery speculation? Did the success of the brewing industry, earlier in the century, in Albany and Troy, and an influx of a beer a drinking population into western New York, fuel the fire for this speculation?
Alan—in a response from to an email I sent him earlier this week on this topic—brought up another good point. While these western New York towns were booming, other frontier areas were also expanding, and yet that might have gone a bit unnoticed by those Rochester and Buffalo brewery owners. Alan wrote:
There is going to be an expectation that the business model will hold, be stable. So as each city becomes supplier to the western frontier, they do not assume that others are going to come along and build Cleveland or Indianapolis.
Bringing the whole idea back to Albany Ale, if speculation, or some kind of betting on the western New York brewing industry was going on, could those bets—and specifically the losing bets—have negatively affected not just the brewing industry of western New York, but also that of Albany and Troy as well?
Maybe those bets were just too much for the marketplace.
*Yeah, yeah, I know that's not the "correct" quote from Macbeth, but it made for a good title.